jul22
Investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a Sunday memo that it believes that most Macau casino operators “may not be able to resume dividend anytime soon,” due to “either stretched balance sheets or restrictions by debt covenants”.
jan23
Macau’s economy is expected to grow at a double-digit rate for the whole year of 2023 buoyed by the lifting of pandemic restrictions, which will boost the city’s export of services, the Monetary Authority of Macau (AMCM) said in a report.
In 2022, Macau’s economy saw a steep decline amid a sharp shrinkage in service exports, as gross gaming revenue (GGR) fell severely, as AMCM pointed out in its Monetary and Financial Stability Review.
Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) plunged by 33.4 per cent year on year in the third quarter of the year, after mid-June’s domestic COVID-19 outbreak dried up tourists from across the border.
https://www.macaubusiness.com/amcm-paints-rosy-prospects-for-macaus-economic-recovery/
jan23
Macau’s property market is likely to welcome significant improvement in the second quarter of 2023, after sales of residential units hit a 40-year low last year, real estate agency Centaline Property predicts.
According to statistics from the Financial Services Bureau (DSF), the first nine months of last year only saw less than 400 flats sold, while the monthly volume of sales exceeded 400 in October alone.
Judging by the trend, the property agency estimated housing sales at 830 in the fourth quarter of 2022 overall in a statement, with the annual volume of sales past 2,900, a decrease of around 50 per cent year-on-year
https://www.macaubusiness.com/macau-records-worst-ever-flat-sales-in-40-years-property-market-to-rebound-in-q2-2023/
jan23
Macau recorded gross gaming revenue of MOP$42.2 billion (US$5.3 billion) in 2022, down 51.4% on 2021 and the lowest single year total since 2004.
The 2022 total, announced by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau on Sunday, included GGR of MOP$3.48 billion (US$435 million) in December, down 56.3% on December 2021 but higher than November’s GGR total of MOP$3.0 billion (US$373 million).
Macau’s final 2022 GGR result comes as the SAR faces the effects of its long-awaited reopening to the world, with a sudden easing of border restrictions countered by a rapid rise in COVID-19 cases across the city.
https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2023/01/01/macau-records-gross-gaming-revenue-of-us5-25-billion-in-2022-down-51-4-year-on-year/The post-COVID earnings of Macau’s gaming operators will be stronger than they were in 2019, buoyed by strong luxury spending by mainland visitors, pent-up demand, lower staffing costs and an improved gaming mix, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
The positive outlook forms part of the investment bank’s latest earnings preview for 2023, with analysts Praveen Choudhary and Gareth Leung adamant that gross gaming revenues will inflect next year on improved regional travel opportunities.
Following eVisa resumption last month, Morgan Stanley believes China will now gradually move away from its COVID-zero policy and reopen all borders with Macau and Hong Kong paving the way for mass market GGR to reach 91% of 2019 levels by Q4.
https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2022/12/06/morgan-stanley-macau-post-covid-earnings-to-be-stronger-than-pre-covid/
Macau’s industry EBITDA will return to 95% of pre-COVID levels by 2024, aided by the expansion of the high-margin mass market and up to 50% more mass gaming tables under the city’s new table cap, according to investment bank JP Morgan.
In a weekend note which estimates true market recovery will begin in early 2023, JP Morgan analyst DS Kim outlines a series of reasons why investors should feel more confident about Macau’s short-term future following confirmation last week that all six current concessionaires would be awarded new 10-year concessions starting 1 January 2023.
These include the removal of concession risk and the potential for a lower tax rate should concessionaires successfully attract more non-Chinese visitation, however he also suggests that a previously announced cap of 6,000 gaming tables market-wide in 2023 – lower than the 6,739 that were in the market as of 4Q19 – was misleading given the collapse of the junket industry.
https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2022/12/05/jp-morgan-new-look-macau-could-see-50-increase-in-mass-gaming-table-capacity-aiding-full-market-recovery-by-2024/
https://macaonews.org/economy/finance-secretary-expects-steady-economic-recovery-for-macao-next-year/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=24+November+Daily+Read+%F0%9F%97%9E%EF%B8%8F&utm_campaign=20221124_Daily+Newsletter
nov22
nob22
nov22
Macau’s Chief Executive, Ho Iat Seng, said on Tuesday there would be no immediate loosening of Covid-19 countermeasures, as the city will continue to follow mainland China’s strategy regarding epidemic-control goals.
“Macau has to follow China’s dynamic zero-Covid-19 policy,” stated Mr Ho, seen centre left, earlier in the day at the city’s Legislative Assembly. Visitors from a number of overseas markets would be “welcomed” to Macau, but “taking into account the epidemic situation, we must persist in the dynamic zero-case policy,” he added. The Chief Executive said however that he expected the situation to improve next year.
https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-to-keep-following-chinas-zero-covid-policy-ce/
nov22
O Governo volta a colocar a fasquia nos 130 mil milhões de patacas em receitas brutas de jogo para o próximo ano. No ano passado, o Governo também achava que os casinos iriam conseguir alcançar os 130 mil milhões de patacas em 2022. No entanto, devido às restrições das autoridades face à pandemia, nos primeiros dez meses deste ano as receitas chegaram apenas aos 35,7 mil milhões.
À semelhança das estimativas iniciais do ano passado, o Governo prevê que as receitas brutas dos casinos em 2023 alcancem os 130 mil milhões de patacas. A previsão está plasmada na proposta de lei do orçamento para o próximo ano, admitida na Assembleia Legislativa (AL) na sexta-feira. O documento indica ainda que os funcionários públicos não terão aumentos no próximo ano e que o Executivo prevê voltar a recorrer à reserva financeira em mais de 35 mil milhões de patacas.
“Prevê-se que, com o lançamento, pelo interior da China, de medidas favoráveis ao turismo de Macau, incluindo a retoma gradual de excursões em Macau e da emissão de vistos electrónicos, o número de visitantes a entrar em Macau volte a subir, estimando-se assim que a receita bruta de jogo em 2023 seja de 130 mil milhões de patacas”, lê-se na proposta de lei do orçamento para o próximo ano.
https://pontofinal-macau.com/2022/11/07/orcamento-para-2023-governo-volta-a-colocar-meta-das-receitas-de-jogo-em-130-mil-milhoes-de-patacas/
Para Davis Fong, não é descabido que o Governo tenha voltado a colocar a fasquia das receitas de jogo nos 130 mil milhões de patacas para o próximo ano. No entanto, o director do Instituto de Estudos sobre a Indústria do Jogo da Universidade de Macau e antigo deputado nomeado aponta para receitas na ordem dos 80 mil milhões.
https://pontofinal-macau.com/2022/11/08/davis-fong-estima-receitas-de-jogo-de-80-mil-milhoes-de-patacas-em-2023/
out22
Macau pode estar a viver um período de mudança de paradigma. Esta é uma das conclusões retiradas do Índice de Prosperidade feito pela Associação Económica de Macau.
A análise feita pela instituição presidida pelo ex-deputado Joey Lao indica que o último trimestre deste ano pode ser sinónimo de viragem, com a recuperação económica a acelerar no final de 2022, revertendo a tendência recessiva do passado gradualmente ao longo do próximo ano.
Segundo avançou ontem a Macau News Agency, a associação argumenta que as principais alavancas da retoma são o regresso da emissão de vistos electrónicos e das excursões turísticas. O relatório publicado no website da associação reforça o carácter gradual da retoma, indicando que “entre Agosto e Setembro, dados económicos como a entrada de turistas, taxa de ocupação hoteleira e receitas do jogo cresceram”.
https://hojemacau.com.mo/2022/10/19/associacao-preve-recuperacao-economica-no-proximo-ano/
out22
Continuing uncertainty around the timing of any potential easing of mainland China’s zero-COVID policy has seen CBRE Equity Research downgrade its Macau EBITDA estimates for 2023, down from US$1.88 billion to US$1.45 billion.
In a Thursday note following publication of Las Vegas Sands’ 3Q22 financial results – which saw the company’s Macau subsidiary Sands China report a widened US$152 million EBITDA loss – analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh said they currently assume Macau will recover to 50% of pre-COVID levels next year but suspect that number will “more likely need to be revised downward than upward given China’s commitment to zero-COVID.”
“While we remain hopeful that group tours and e-visas get reinstated by the end of the month or early November, it remains unclear if visitation to Macau will accelerate given Beijing’s unwavering commitment to its zero-COVID policy,” they said.
https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2022/10/21/cbre-lowers-macau-2023-ebitda-estimates-on-covid-zero-uncertainty/
out22
Out22
China shows no sign of easing its “dynamic zero-Covid” policy regarding community management of Covid-19 infection risk, and it may persist into next year, with the potential for continued impact on Macau’s casino sector, said local gaming scholar Wang Changbin in comments to GGRAsia.
The term “dynamic” is understood to be an indication by the mainland authorities of the need for mass-testing and if necessary lockdowns, but on a rolling basis, depending on when and where outbreaks occur.
The country’s leader, President Xi Jinping, has several times made public announcements about the necessity and efficacy of the policy. Some investment analysts covering Macau gaming had surmised the policy might ease after the imminent staging in Beijing of the National Congress of the ruling Communist Party.
https://www.ggrasia.com/china-zero-covid-policy-may-persist-to-2023-macau-scholar/
set22
2024
Brokerage firm Morgan Stanley observed that the recovery of the local gaming sector may only be seen by 2024, despite the long-awaited announcement of group visa reinstatements.
These comments echo similar sentiments issued by industry analysts, as the spending power of group travelers is weaker than that of those holding individual visit scheme (IVS) visas.
“Assuming package tours and IVS e-visas are relaxed in October, we think mainland visitation numbers could reach 45% of 2019 levels and mass revenue of 60%,” the brokerage said in a note.
“Even after the relaxation of these two factors, we await the HK/Macau border opening and relaxation of Covid test validity periods (from 48 hours currently to seven days) for full economic recovery,” the analysts added.
https://macaudailytimes.com.mo/morgan-stanley-amid-group-visa-hype-recovery-only-apparent-in-2024.html
set22
A gaming consultant predicts Macau's casino industry could easily recover over the next two years and bring in twice the revenue of Las Vegas despite currently being in the "doldrums".Ben Lee from the Macau-based firm iGamix said he doesn't expect a recovery this year as the territory depends on the mainland for visitors and is therefore "locked in" with Beijng's Covid-19 strategy. However, he noted that at its peak in 2013, Macau grossed revenues that were nine times those of America's gambling hub and said that just as Las Vegas had bounced back this year, "we expect Macau to recover very easily to, let's say, $10bn in a period of two years' time... or twice the revenue of Vegas."
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1666569-20220913.htm?spTabChangeable=0
set22
set22
Glenn McCartney está optimista quanto ao futuro do turismo e do sector do jogo em Macau. Para o professor de Gestão Integrada de Turismo e Hotelaria da Universidade de Macau (UM), “não há razão para não conseguirmos chegar ao nível em que estávamos antes da Covid-19”. Em entrevista ao PONTO FINAL, o especialista do sector do jogo e turismo assegura que Macau continua a ser apetecível para os casinos, mas há que estar atento aos outros mercados da região.
https://pontofinal-macau.com/2022/09/02/nao-ha-razao-para-nao-conseguirmos-chegar-ao-nivel-em-que-estavamos-antes-da-covid-19/
ag22
As receitas do jogo em Macau “ainda não atingiram o pico” e poderão superar os níveis pré-pandemia em 2024, acredita Praveen Choudhary, analista do Morgan Stanley Asia. Sublinhando que a procura não desapareceu, o especialista considera que o mercado de Macau continuará a ser “muito lucrativo” para as operadoras de casinos
https://jtm.com.mo/local/jogo-em-macau-continuara-ser-muito-lucrativo/
ag22
Choi Kam Fu, secretário-geral da Associação de Empregados das Empresas de Jogo, admitiu que a epidemia realçou ainda mais o problema da estrutura económica de Macau, reforçando a determinação da diversificação adequada da economia e implementando verdadeiramente o posicionamento de Macau como um centro mundial de turismo e lazer.
Ao jornal Ou Mun, Choi Kam Fu referiu que embora tenha tido impacto na economia local, a epidemia vai acabar e o Governo Central tem realizado várias políticas preferenciais, fazendo com que as perspectivas económicas a longo prazo de Macau sejam optimistas.
https://pontofinal-macau.com/2022/08/01/concurso-publico-para-novas-concessoes-beneficia-desenvolvimento-diversificado/
ju22
jul22
A crise do coronavírus que teve início a partir de 2020 constitui um grande desafio para Macau, fazendo com que a economia do território tenha sido duramente atingida pela recessão. A nova ronda de epidemia surgida a 18 de Junho fez com que a cidade praticamente entrasse num confinamento com a suspensão de quase todas as actividades comerciais e industriais a partir no início desta semana, complicando ainda mais a situação. Ao PONTO FINAL, o director-adjunto do Departamento de Finanças e Economia Empresarial da Universidade de Macau, Henry Lei, considera que a crise de saúde pública tem causado“enorme impacto” em diferentes vertentes da sociedade e na economia de Macau, acreditando que o processo de recuperação pode demorar algum tempo.
https://pontofinal-macau.com/2022/07/15/processo-de-recuperacao-de-macau-pode-ser-laborioso-e-moroso-diz-academico/
jul22
Warnings from economists and major financial organizations, including the World Bank, that a global recession is on its way pose little threat to Macau’s casino industry, with any recession impact to be mitigated by COVID recovery, according to brokerage Bernstein.
In a note assessing the impact of a recession on US and Macau operators, Bernstein analysts Vitaly Umansky, Louis Li and Shirley Yang estimate the nationwide impact on GGR in the United States would be in the range of 3% to 11% – the decline limited by a higher reliance on non-gaming and recent cost-restructuring that has operators better placed than in previous recession times.
https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2022/07/06/and-now-for-some-good-news-global-recession-would-have-little-impact-on-macau-gaming/
set22
A emissão de títulos de dívida do Estado na RAEM por parte do Governo Central é “uma medida importante para promover a diversificação adequada da economia de Macau”, disse ontem o Secretário para a Economia e Finanças, defendendo que o mercado de obrigações local atinge, assim, um “novo patamar”. Lei Wai Nong disse ainda esperar uma “emissão periódica” de títulos de dívida no território por parte da China. Wang Kebing, director do Departamento Financeiro do Ministério, adiantou que as obrigações emitidas ontem já foram subscritas, gerando “uma recepção entusiástica” dos investidores
https://jtm.com.mo/local/raem-espera-mais-emissoes-de-titulos-de-divida-estado/
set22
O vice-presidente da Conferência Consultiva Política do Povo Chinês (CCPPC) e director do Gabinete para os Assuntos de Hong Kong e Macau junto do Conselho de Estado, Xia Baolong, teve um encontro com o Chefe do Executivo, Ho Iat Seng, na segunda-feira, em Zhuhai. Xia Baolong salienta que “a pátria (China) tem sido sempre um forte apoio à prosperidade e estabilidade a longo prazo de Macau”, revelando que Pequim tem a intenção de lançar algumas medidas para ajudar a cidade a ultrapassar as dificuldades, especialmente no desenvolvimento do turismo e aceleração da construção de Hengqin.
https://pontofinal-macau.com/2022/09/07/pequim-quer-estudar-medidas-para-apoiar-turismo-de-macau-e-acelerar-construcao-de-hengqin/
https://jtm.com.mo/local/governo-central-reafirma-apoio-ao-desenvolvimento-turismo/
jul22
Stricter pandemic control measures may well be enforced in Macao in the near future, given a growing chorus of comment in the Chinese language press.
According to an article in the Overseas Network of People’s Daily (Haiwainet), there is a feeling in Macao that the current epidemic prevention measures are not strict enough.
The website said that “the epidemic prevention and control measures have been implemented in Macao in an orderly manner, however there are problems that need urgent attention.”
The story, written by Fu Zimei, stated that in the face of the hostile novel coronavirus, decisions needed to be made soon and acted upon fast.
https://macaonews.org/covid-19/macao-needs-stricter-pandemic-prevention-measures-peoples-daily/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=8+July+Daily+Read+%F0%9F%97%9E%EF%B8%8F&utm_campaign=20220708_Daily+Newsletter
jul22
Numa reunião com o Comando da Linha da Frente do Apoio a Macau contra Pandemia de Zhuhai, o director do Gabinete de Ligação do Governo Central na RAEM defendeu a implementação “resoluta” e “inabalável” da política dinâmica de ‘zero casos’ em Macau, de acordo com as orientações antipandémicas proferidas pelo Governo Central.
https://pontofinal-macau.com/2022/07/08/gabinete-de-ligacao-esta-inabalavel-na-politica-de-zero-casos/
jul22
O Chefe do Executivo de Macau, Ho Iat Seng, reuniu-se ontem com o Presidente Xi Jinping, que se encontra em Hong Kong para participar no 25.º aniversário da RAE de Hong Kong, assinalado hoje. Durante a reunião, o líder chinês disse que o Governo Central “reconheceu plenamente” o trabalho de Ho Iat Seng e da sua administração e espera que o governante da RAEM continue a “procurar o progresso mantendo a estabilidade e prevenindo e controlando a epidemia”, refere o jornal South China Morning Post.
O presidente chinês acrescentou ainda que o Chefe do Executivo de Macau deve continuar a “aliviar as dificuldades da população, esforçar-se por promover a recuperação económica, promover firmemente um desenvolvimento económico moderadamente diversificado e fazer todos os esforços para manter a estabilidade social”.
https://pontofinal-macau.com/2022/07/01/xi-jinping-pede-a-ho-iat-seng-para-continuar-a-lutar-pela-recuperacao-da-economia/
